The upcoming 2026 European Championships in Paris are shaping up to be a thrilling spectacle, particularly in the men’s 4×100 medley relay. Personally, I think this event is a microcosm of the broader shifts in European swimming—a blend of rising stars, seasoned veterans, and nations scrambling to fill critical gaps. What makes this particularly fascinating is how the absence of key swimmers, like Leon Marchand, has thrown the podium predictions into disarray. If you take a step back and think about it, this race isn’t just about speed; it’s about strategy, adaptability, and the psychological edge that comes with knowing your team’s strengths and weaknesses.
The Rise of a New Dynasty?
One thing that immediately stands out is the dominance of the Neutral Athletes B (NAB) team. With a lineup that includes Kliment Kolesnikov and Egor Kornev, they’re not just favorites—they’re a juggernaut. Kolesnikov’s backstroke prowess and Kornev’s anchor leg are virtually unmatched. What many people don’t realize is that NAB’s depth in every stroke is what sets them apart. They’re not just aiming for gold; they’re positioning themselves as the next dynasty in this event. This raises a deeper question: Can any other nation disrupt their momentum?
Italy’s Silver Lining
Italy, in my opinion, is the most intriguing contender for silver. Thomas Ceccon’s backstroke and Nicolo Martinenghi’s breaststroke are solid, but their butterfly leg has been their Achilles’ heel. Federico Burdisso needs to step up, and Carlos D’Ambrosio’s freestyle anchor is reliable but not game-changing. What this really suggests is that Italy’s success hinges on consistency across all four legs. If they can execute flawlessly, they’re a lock for second place. But that’s a big if.
France’s Missing Pieces
France’s situation is particularly poignant. Without Leon Marchand, their breaststroke leg is a glaring weakness. Yohann Ndoye-Brouard and Maxime Grousset are world-class in their respective strokes, but their freestyle options are underwhelming. A detail that I find especially interesting is how Marchand’s absence highlights the fragility of relay teams. One injury can unravel months of preparation. France’s challenge now is to minimize the damage and hope for a miracle.
Great Britain’s Redemption Arc
Great Britain’s story is one of redemption. After years of dominance, they’ve fallen off the podium. But with Adam Ramsay-Peaty back on breaststroke and Matt Richards potentially returning on the anchor, they’re a dark horse. What makes this particularly fascinating is their ability to peak at the right time. If Ollie Morgan can regain his form and Ed Mildred delivers on the butterfly, they could surprise everyone. In my opinion, they’re the team to watch for an upset.
Germany’s Quiet Confidence
Germany is the sleeper pick. They’ve been quietly building a well-rounded team with Kaii Winkler, Melvin Imoudu, and Joshua Salchow. What many people don’t realize is that their disqualification at the World Championships last year has fueled their determination. If all their swimmers perform to their potential, they could sneak onto the podium. This raises a deeper question: Are they ready to step into the spotlight?
The Underdogs and What-Ifs
Teams like the Netherlands, Spain, and Greece are long shots but worth mentioning. The Netherlands’ Caspar Corbeau is a breaststroke phenom, but their butterfly gap is a deal-breaker. Spain’s Hugo Gonzalez is a standout, but their middle legs are subpar. Greece, however, is the dark horse of the dark horses. With Evangelos Efraim Ntoumas emerging as a breaststroke talent, they could challenge for a final spot. What this really suggests is that in swimming, talent alone isn’t enough—you need a complete team.
The Bigger Picture
If you take a step back and think about it, this race is a reflection of the evolving landscape of European swimming. Nations are investing in youth, refining strategies, and learning from past mistakes. The absence of Marchand, the rise of NAB, and the struggles of traditional powerhouses like France all point to a new era. Personally, I think the 2026 Championships will be remembered as a turning point—a race where the old guard was challenged, and new dynasties began to take shape.
Final Thoughts
In my opinion, the men’s 4×100 medley relay is more than just a race; it’s a narrative of ambition, resilience, and the relentless pursuit of excellence. NAB will likely win, but the real drama lies in the battle for silver and bronze. Italy, Great Britain, and Germany are all in contention, and France’s struggle adds an emotional layer to the event. What makes this particularly fascinating is the unpredictability—anything can happen. And that’s why we’ll all be watching.
